Recent Commentary
SIFMA Quarterly Government Securities Issuance and Rates Forecast > July 2009
The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association is pleased to report the results of its Quarterly Government Securities Issuance and Rates Forecast. The forecast reflects the responses to a survey of members of the Association’s Government Securities Research, Analysis and Strategy Committee. The Committee is composed of trading strategists and research analysts at Association member firms who specialize in the U.S. government and agency securities markets. The survey is intended to provide market participants with the current consensus expectations and median forecasts of many of the Primary Dealers and other firms active in the U.S. government and agency securities markets.
Third Quarter Total Net Issuance Expected to Continue to Rise on Budget Deficit Projection
The median survey response forecasts total net Treasury bill, note and bond issuance to be $446.0 billion in the third quarter of 2009, compared with the net $343.0 billion issued in the second quarter and the net $527.0 billion issued in the third quarter a year ago. The quarterly increase is consistent with significant third quarter borrowing needs, while last year’s large issuance occured as the deficit increased with the intensification of the credit crisis.
Coupon Issuance Rises Again
The median forecast for net new issuance of Treasury coupon securities was $384.0 billion for the third quarter, 3.8 percent above second quarter issuance and more than double the net issuance in the third quarter a year ago...(For continuation of report, click link below.)
Full Report: SIFMA Goverment Forecast for July 2009
